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Incerto Ser.: The Black Swan: Second Edition : The Impact of the Highly Improbable: with a New Section: on Robustness and Fragility by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2010, Trade Paperback)

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The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes . A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book--itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb "The most prophetic voice of all." --GQ Praise for The Black Swan " A book] that altered modern thinking." -- The Times (London) "A masterpiece." --Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant." --Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works." --Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate " Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias and] narrative fallacy." --The Wall Street Journal "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into." -- Financial Times "Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition." --The New York Times Book Review

Product Identifiers

Publisher
Random House Publishing Group
ISBN-10
081297381x
ISBN-13
9780812973815
eBay Product ID (ePID)
8038694172

Product Key Features

Author
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publication Name
Black Swan: Second Edition : The Impact of the Highly Improbable: with a New Section: on Robustness and Fragility
Format
Trade Paperback
Language
English
Series
Incerto Ser.
Publication Year
2010
Type
Textbook
Number of Pages
480 Pages

Dimensions

Item Length
8in.
Item Height
1in.
Item Width
5.2in.
Item Weight
12.2 Oz

Additional Product Features

Series Volume Number
2
Lc Classification Number
Q375.T35 2010
Edition Number
2
Reviews
Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb "The most prophetic voice of all." --GQ Praise for The Black Swan "[A book] that altered modern thinking." -- The Times (London) "A masterpiece." --Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant." --Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works." --Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy." --The Wall Street Journal "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into." -- Financial Times "Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition." --The New York Times Book Review, " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works."--Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into."-- Financial Times "A masterpiece."--Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."--Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times, "The Black Swanchanged my view of how the world works."-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into."-Financial Times "A masterpiece."-Chris Anderson, author ofThe Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."-Niall Ferguson,Los Angeles Times, " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works."-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into."- Financial Times "A masterpiece."-Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."-Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times
PRODUCT_ORIGIN
TAMBOURINE_MIGRATED
Copyright Date
2010
Target Audience
Trade
Topic
Information Theory, Decision-Making & Problem Solving, Future Studies, Statistics, Corporate Finance / General
Lccn
2010-292618
Illustrated
Yes
Genre
Computers, Business & Economics, Social Science

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item 1 The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the - 081297381X, paperback, Taleb
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item 2 The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new
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item 3 The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new
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5 out of 5 stars
by q7twwaltro2@del...Jul 05, 2010
My book of the year: the black swan
The book was sent timely. I definitely enjoyed this book. It went through a lot of material that I have had to learn through the times. It is hard to combine all of it in a structured manner, since there is an eclectic collection of topics. I have been exposed to a series of mathematical experiences, which made it even more interesting to see how he talk about it and the people behind it. The author covers philosophy, literature, knowledge, typical and mathematical emergence of information, system theory, finance, pattern recognition, human relations and ... well, simply life. It is a fine book.
5 out of 5 stars
by paulipilzJul 08, 2020
Good Read
A must read for anyone trying to put current and future events in perspective.
Verified purchase: Yes | Condition: New
5 out of 5 stars
by fafafo14Jul 20, 2022
A good read
I usually buy used books. This is a good value.
Verified purchase: Yes | Condition: Pre-owned
5 out of 5 stars
by wuchu5188_8Jul 05, 2023
Know other people's view
Open my view to see more and feel it.
Verified purchase: Yes | Condition: Pre-owned

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Incerto Ser.: The Black Swan: Second Edition : The Impact of the Highly Improbable: with a New Section: on Robustness and Fragility by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2010, Trade Paperback)

About this product

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My book of the year: the black swan

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