(Revised 10 Dec 2012- Please check the “YES” box below if this guide assisted you, thank you!)
Background:
An old book collector once told me that for a book to be rare there had to be fewer than 1000 copies printed, and for a book to be scarce there had to be fewer than 10,000 copies printed.
Given time you "may" have the potential for high dollar value. The antithesis is, if it isn't at least scarce - it's probably not worth a lot (nor the time and effort to sell it). However, there is NOTHING written in stone in the world of book sales - so please take this with a grain of salt.
Estate Sales (this section borrowed with permission from Dale Murphy - Dec 2010)
Due to space limitations, this section has been removed. To view the entire guide please visit the National Geographic Collector's Corner at: ngscollectors (dot) ning (dot) com/forum/topics/a-guide-to-selling-national-geographic-magazines-revised-10-dec
Quantity + Quality = Demand, which yields "Value":
It's the old story of supply and demand. The fewer of an item that people want the greater the demand, hence the greater the value (or cost) to the people who want it. Refer to the Background above while reviewing the Quantity information below.
Quantity:
The first National Geographic Magazine was published October 1888. This first year began with 165 members. The second year ended with 228 members. The Society generally published only a few extra magazines above the membership numbers, thus the rarity of the first eight years of publications known as the "red brick" issues. By 1896 more than 1,200 copies per issue were published each month. By 1905 more than 10,000 copies per issue were published each month, beginning with the April issue. By 1914 more than 285,000 copies per issue were published each month. By 1925 more than 990,000 copies per issue were published each month; 1940 - 1.1 million; 1950 - 1.9 million; 1960 - 2.5 million; 1970 - 6.8 million; 1980 - 10 million plus.
There is most often a direct correlation between quantity published and demand, i.e. the more published - the less the demand, but "quality" also influences the final demand.
Quality:
Generally speaking, good quality magazines are relatively easy to come by beginning with 1920, moderately difficult from 1907 to 1919, and increasingly difficult (and costly) as you slip back in years earlier than 1907.
There are some anomalies, e.g. 1904 issues are much more difficult to find, especially in good condition, than several of the earlier years.
I like to use Very Good (VG) as a benchmark {there exists no accepted standard grading system for NG magazaines} and would describe this quality as:
"Minor soiling, creasing (two minor tears) with moderate surface wear on the cover with moderate reflectivity and fading. The spine must be intact and complete with moderate tears. Interior pages may have minor soiling and discoloration - but otherwise must be complete with all pages present (to include advertising).
When you consider the number of NG magazines issued over more than 120 years of publication you begin to see how involved collecting becomes - especially when you evaluate individual magazine quality.
Once you have combined the quantity published with the quality of the magazine you now have a defined product to offer to your buyer. So what is its value?
Value:
Generally speaking, I have found the following decades (per issue) in the VG condition described above go for (sliding scale downward as you reach the end of the decade):1910 - $25 (with war years sometimes asking more): 1920 - $15; 1930 - $10; 1940 - $7.50 (with war years sometimes asking more); 1950 - $5; 1960 - $2; 1970 - $.50.
Missing covers, except for the first 20 years or so, make the magazine nearly worthless whereas a magazine in better condition than the VG described above, even marginally so, may enhance the value immensely. VG is my benchmark, but there exists an entire range of quality assessments that follow "comic book" appraisals and include: Damaged, Poor, Fair, Good, Very Good, Fine, Very Fine, Near Mint and Mint.
Remember, there is no accepted standard grading system for National Geographic Magazines. I have "relearned" this fact many times while purchasing on line. You must be very specific with your listing description when selling or specific with your questions when buying or you will have difficulty with your transactions. Do your research!
Go to eBay and do a search for National Geographic Magazine. You'll find upwards of twenty thousand items listed. Where do your items fit in the scheme of things?
I've seen a January 1921 go for $50 with the picture supplement included. I've seen August 1914 with map supplement go for over $100. But I've also seen a beautiful August 1905 with map supplement go for $27.
Generally speaking, a book dealer will offer you far less to purchase your item than you can sell it for on eBay. He will also charge you far more than a like item you can purchase from eBay. Buying or selling on eBay can have unseen hazards for the uninitiated but a cautious and determined approach for either selling or buying has its rewards.
I've seen a validated first issue, October 1888, go for just over $6,000. A book dealer would have probably demanded $10,000. I've seen an entire bound first two volumes, the first 9 issues, complete with covers, ads and maps sell for just over $20,000. A book dealer would have asked twice that much.
Since February 2009, I've maintained a spreadsheet on eBay sales for the first 18 volumes, twenty years of National Geographic Magazines. I have captured the "highest" three sales per issue per year (discarding lower priced sales). This spreadsheet allows me to average both the issue (month) and the entire year to develop a high-water mark for "my" purchase. Please note there exist many subtleties/variables too numerous to outline in this guide that may alter any given issue's value.
Here are the eBay "high-three" averages for the first 20 years of NG magazines as revised from the Dec 2009 guide: 1888 - $5,670.22 (only one issue published); 1889 - $653.71; 1890 - no sales observed; 1891 - $490.67; 1892 - $500.00 (only one sale observed); 1893 - $382.50; 1894 - $466.32 (only one new sale observed); 1895 - $295.67; 1896 - $219.96; 1897 - $171.66; 1898 - $252.04; 1899 - $386.63; 1900 - $163.59; 1901 - $174.11; 1902 - $164.44; 1903 - $157.75; 1904 - $217.00; 1905 - $115.75; 1906 - $61.53; 1907 - $41.08.
New Data:
As of August 2012, I expanded my data collection of eBay sales to include the years 1908 through 1917 inclusive. As with the previous data collection I maintain "only" the highest three sales, discarding any lower sales data. The information listed below is "preliminary," i.e. it takes one to two years of sales for VG or better quality magazines to populate the database. Sales to date are mostly of Good or worse condition with supplements usually missing.
To assist with interpreting this preliminary data I've include a Ratio = (# of VG or better magazines recorded for the year / Total # of magazines recorded for the year).
Year - Avg. Sales - Ratio; 1908 - $22.69 - 9/32; 1909 - $19.99 - 12-33; 1910 - $16.44 - 2/35; 1911 - $14.96 - 1/36; 1912 - $12.03 - 3/36; *1913 - $32.05 - 7/36 (with April + supplement included); *1913 - $14.41 - 6/33 (with April + supplement stripped out); 1914 - $10.71 - 3/36; 1915 - $12.13 - 8/36; 1916 - $10.14 - 14/36; 1917 - $10.86 - 7/33.
*A Good April 1913, with map supplement, has become hard to find. The average for the top three sales "just" for this month with supplement is $226.14.
Again, (always generally speaking) book dealers would have asked for nearly double these prices. For example, I acquired a beautiful 1907 leather bound complete year with all covers, ads, index and map for $202.50 on eBay. I attempted to purchase a damaged bound 1907 just months prior to this from a book dealer. The front board was off the book; the binding was falling apart; the covers and ads (as is normally the practice with bound NG magazines) were missing as well as the one map for the year and the index. The dealer was asking for $300 and would not negotiate. I'm glad I waited for the right eBay moment!
Update on eBay sales:
Since April 2012 there have been two partial sales of magazines reaching back to 1896. Fewer than half of the sales broke into my top three eBay sales list with annual averages changed by less than $10 per issue for all but three years. The years 1906 through 1909 continue to experience an up tic in prices for even poorer quality magazines. It is my opinion that because these are the last of the older issues still fairly easy to obtain and averaging less than $100 per copy their yearly averages will continue rising as competition for them increases.
Conclusion:
It's all in the timing!
If you have patience and the time, and are reasonable, you can buy and sell at your price. If you're in a hurry and need to sell or buy today you are more than likely NOT going to get what you want OR you are going to pay a premium.
I hope this helps! Good luck with your collections whether you're buying or selling!
P.S. It costs (in 2010) about $125 to ship 14 years worth of NG magazines via UPS - this does not include packing material costs. The Post Office will not ship (declared - hint! hint!) "magazines" via media mail because of their "advertisements."
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