The Iraqi Dinar Status

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If your only interested in the current status, scroll down a bit.

To start:

Anyone thinking about investing in the dinar should really take the time to either do the research to understand the investment or at the very least, stay up to date on the areas news. Many dinar information sites are littered with people scambling for scraps of information, not to begin their own personal research to understand the investment but rather to figure out if its worth it or not (in the sense of a quick fix). One of the only complaints I have had since I started investing is the fly-by-night buyers who spread rumors like wild fire. They are to dinar what pyramid scammers are to the buisness world. They give the entire investment a bad name, vibe, and catchet.

To begin looking at the investment, whether your new to the idea or have already invested it's wise to start with the very basics and then go from there. I will write this out with the simplest form of the investment first, followed by some in-depth information.

1. Start off by doing a simple risk/benefit analysis. Take a piece of paper and draw a line down the middle. Make a risk and benefit header for each column. Then write them in. Risks include the money you spend, the time you spend doing research and analysis and any other input you accomplish. On the benefit side, write in whatever benefits you reasonable believe to gain. Then on the bottom write down the realistic amount of time you think it will take to achieve the exchange rate you realistically can live with at its lowest amount. For example, if you think it will go one USD to one IQD (NID) in ten years then write that. Remember that risks are guaranteed and benefits are only speculative. Compare. Do the risks outwiegh the benefits or vice versa? You decide.

2. Some quick basic terminology and info: The new iraqi dinar is usually NID on ebay but the actual abreviation is IQD. The Central Bank of Iraq website posts the official exchange rate. IQD is NOT an officially recognized currency, but some banks have traded it and you can legally buy it. HCL references the oil law that is yet to be passed in Iraq. IMF is the agency that can officially recognize the IQD as currency.

3. Iraq Status:

Iraq is facing possible war with Turkey at this point. Turkey to sum it up, is upset that some rebels in Iraq are killing their citizens and have already shelled some Iraqi towns and are threatening border incursion. Turkey has also warned the US against passing legislation officially naming an event that occured nearly 100 years ago, a holocaust. If we do name it as such, Turkey has warned us about backlash politically and we may no longer be able to use their country for airline runs. Turkey currently jumps off about 70% of our air travel to Iraq.

With the current state of political mess we have between Iraq and Turkey, Iran is a continual threat and Russia has taken the oppurtunity to blast the US. Russia has been all but siding with Iran against the US and has stepped up its threats about the US missile defense system. Lets not forget about Iran, who's leader has taken a ride on the world political stage lately and seems to really enjoy it. Iran is capable of anything, even outright attack on the US forces in Iraq.

Basically it was a jumbled mess a year ago over there and now the political tension amounts to gas soaked tinder with a lit match hovering above it.

4. Status of the Dinar:

Through all the years the dinar has remained stable. Considering all the current tensions we are facing it shows just how strong the currency is. By stable, its value has increased very well over the last year. Since Saddam has been captured it has done very well indeed. Many experts predicted the dinar would have long been rendered useless by now. Several years ago they said civil war, inflation, a lop and reprint, etc..etc...etc.. would devalue the dinar and essentially you were wasting your money buying any. Here we are years later and the value has risen better then the stocks on the stock market.

Many sellers and others I mentioned earlier, (the fly-by night investers) talk about the dinar reval...going 1:1 with the USD, and such as something that will happen anytime. Its very doubtful at best. The dinars value has slowly appreciated over the last several years and will continue to do so. There are several factors that will drastically affect the value that have not even occured yet. I will name them below...

1. HCL hasn't passed, 2. IMF hasn't approved it, 3. Iraqs debt and 4. Security problems

The strength in the dinar and its slow increase in value has happend despite these factors. When these things occur (see the official Iraqi benchmarks set by the US) there is no telling what will happen to the dinar. The greatest likelyhood is that it will continue to gain value and get in line with current currency value of other oil rich countries.

The oil law is needed so Iraq can sign contracts with private countries to pump oil. The IMF has passed the dinar up till its final stage. When the IMF approves the dinar at its final stage it will be an officially world traded currency. Iraq still is crippled with debt and debt forgiveness has been happening slowly (unfortunately Russia is owed some of it). Security continues to be an ongoing concern.

As these benchmarks get met, the value of the currency will show it. These factors greatly effect the dinars value. The only other factor with such impact is inflation and the economists in Iraq have been able to stave it off wonderfully. Its amazing to see the stability and gradual increase in value when these critical benchmarks have yet to be passed.

5. Timing and the conclusion:

I wouldn't buy into the dinar being a big get rich investment, not over night at least. Expect it to take a good 10 - 15 years before one million dinar will be worth $500,000. The timing of the value is all guessing though. Even my ideas are only guesses as no one knows. I think the real issue with timing is the IMF. If they make the dinar an officially recognized currency, web trading may be done. At that point you will necessarily have to buy from a store or bank and the rates will undoubtedly be higher.

It is wise to also remember a few things. First, no one knows the end of the story. No matter how much credibility a person has, they can only offer opinions and those can be wrong. Second, there are many things that in the end, could make the dinar worthless. Iraq could potentially chose to "lop" zeros off the currency rate. Making a 25K note a 25 dinar note. They could make a new currency and leave the IQD investors high and dry. These things could happen. I sincerely doubt they will, but they very much could. Lastly, I will leave you with the time honored tip; only invest what you can afford.

I hope this helps to generalize some info on investing in dinar. If you would like this guide filled out in depth with information and interpretation of that info that you can't argue with, do your own research and decide.

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